[Kimmi Kappenberg]

- Tue May 16, 2017 10:23:56 pm #5483 Well this is it, the home stretch. One more vote between you and the finals. So congrats on making it here, first of all, you've done what 17 others before you couldn't. It's not small feat. But you've still got one crucial decision to make.

So who is in your ideal f3? Why does the odd man (or woman) out need to go, in your opinion?

Can you break down your reasons for why you'd beat the two you want sitting next to you in the finals?

The discussion of threats and non-threats has been tossed around a lot the past couple rounds. How much weight do you give the labels that have been assigned to the remaining players? Who are the threats and non-threats?

How confident are you in your ability to win if you get to the end?

[LJ]

- Wed May 17, 2017 7:14:26 am #5571 I think the ideal final 3 for me is 100% Tai and then the other spot I'm still unsure.

Natalie is risky because if she gets Andrea, Steve, Nick, Spencer, and Morgan it's a wrap.

While Aubry seems like the obvious winner, does she get all 5 of them?? She gets Julia and Steve for sure, but is everyone else in play?

There's also the fact that I kind of painted myself into a corner by publicly standing by Aubry last night. I kind of can't screw her over now or I look like a fake and a hypocrite.

So as of right now, with those two things in mind I think I'm leaning towards me, Aubry, and Tai.

If that's the case:

Julia - AUBRY
Trish - LJ
Spencer - ???
Morgan - ???
Nick - ???
Lindsey - LJ
Andrea - ???
Steve - AUBRY
Natalie - ???

That alliance is still controlling my fate. But at least in this scenario they might not all vote together. What worries me about Natalie is that they will give her the win as some sort of validation of their group and refuse to accept that we shattered them into a million pieces.

Call Andrea and Natalie as probably NO for me and let's assume they vote Aubry -

That puts us at 4-2-0 Aubry and she's one away from winning. Can I get Morgan, Spencer, and Nick???

This seems unlikely.

But you know what? As I'm typing this out, against Natalie and Tai do I get Lindsey, Trish, and Aubry? I think so. Julia might vote Tai. So from their bloc of 5 I'd need to get 1 or 2 depending on what Julia does. Can I convince someone like Nick or Morgan that I'm a better winner than Natalie?

I kind of think so... I'm back to wanting Natalie. As to why I can beat them:

TAI - Aubry made him look baaaaaad last night. He didn't handle the situation well. He won't handle FTC well if they come after him. We played the same game for almost the entire merge but I didn't leave as many people feeling upset (I think?)

NATALIE - Coattail rider, Andrea's shadow, basically a ghost, etc. Her alliance will want to see one of their own win, but I think I'll just need to convince one or two of them.

All labels in this game are stupid. Nothing matters except making it to the end. People get so caught up in that stuff and they lose track of that. Who cares if Andrea is a threat? Her existence kept me in the game longer. Same could be said for Aubry right now. I tried to explain that to Andrea before they voted out Lindsey. I told her they should do Tai there because Lindsey and I surviving as a pair keeps a target on us instead of her. Obviously with the idol it would have backfired, but taking that out of the equation if Tai goes home there, this is a very different F4. Probably Andrea, Steve, Natalie, and Aubry.

Natalie and Tai are both intelligent and understand the nuances of the game but I'm confident that I will outperform both. I think I have a better understanding of how people think and what they want to hear. Like I know Morgan will want to hear about how great she is. Nick too probably. Whereas I don't think that would help with Andrea or Steve.