By Flicka Flame
#5945 Well, it's been a long journey to get here, but you're here. You've made it to the final 3! You've done what 18 others could not and did not do. Congratulations, Aubry! icon_excited

However, the game is not quite over yet. You still need to make sure that the jury awards enough votes to be the winner of Stranded in Socotra.

So, give me the scoop! How confident are you in your ability to win?

Whose votes do you think you will be getting from the jury?

Whose votes do you think you won't be getting and what can you do to convince them to vote for you?
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Flicka Flame

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By Aubry
#6052 THANK YOUUUUUUU!!!!!

I AM HELLA CONFIDENT!!! LIKE... 95% confident. When I won Final Immunity, I pretty much knew I had it in the bag. Especially once everything that I've done comes out (I'm thinking the having 2/3 idols part), I really think I'll cinch it.

Votes I think I'll get easily, because they've told me they'll vote for me:
Julia
Andrea
Steve
Nat

Votes I think may go to LJ, but I can swing them (I'm 70% sure I can) if they value gameplay:
Trish (she had a connection with Tai tho??? Who knows!)
Lindsey
Morgan

Complete question marks:
Nick (we've been "close" but yeah, he figured out I was playing him the whole time. He may respect that or really really hate that, who knows)
Spencer (we've barely talked this whole game, almost never about strategy. Idk who else he would vote for though? I don't think he had ties with any of us three to be honest)

I have a few tricks I can pull out, but I think the most persuasive aspect of my game is that I infiltrated the majority alliance with the sole purpose of protecting my ass AND ALSO LJ'S AND ALSO TAI'S. It wasn't specifically to bring them to the end to pale in comparison to me, but I can say that. Who'll know!
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Aubry

  • Al-Mahrah Tribe
  • Posts: 623
By Aubry
#6329 Alright... here's my first pass at the opening speech.


Hi, jury! Thank you so much for being a large part of what made this game so dang enjoyable. I really feel like I made some deep connections in this game with many of you, and am eager to keep building on that after tonight.

Here is my entire game, truncated:

OG AOMAK.

On the first night of this game, me and Nick formed a partnership. Nick and I bonded immediately, and I was excited about where we could go together. But, I knew we would have to build some trust together at tribal councils. At the Shiekh vote, someone voted for Alecia, when myself and Nick were clearly vying for the spot. I'm still not positive who did that, but at the time I suspected it was Nick. This would prove to be the seed of suspicion that would lead me to keep Nick close, but to be wary. With the Kyle boot, this really got exacerbated. I really did not want to go down with that ship, as the Kyle vote was otherwise unanimous. Nick also lied about having an idol that round, and our trust couldn't really come back from that, especially given the lies about the votes that would come in early merge.

Also at OG Aomak, Tai and I formed a very very solid alliance and friendship. He was, at that time, the most trustworthy person in this game, and I wanted to go all the way to the end with him - which we did accomplish, admittedly with some chaos thrown in.

The third important thing to happen in OG Aomak was that I FOUND THE IDOL using the clues that Nick had given me. With a lot of searching in the wrong place, and finally an epiphany and a very informative non-Wikipedia page, I got there first! I'm not sure if Tai will try to claim he found it, but if you want proof of this, ask us what the password was. Only I know it, unless someone on NuAomak told him what it was! icon_wink Anyway, more on the usage of the idol itself at the Trish boot.

SWAP.

Immediately after the swap, Julia and I bonded HARD. We had had a relationship on OG Aomak, but it absolutely paled in comparison to what it became at the swap. Julia was my heart in this game, and I would have done anything for her.

This is also when my bonds with LJ and Lindsey were born. LJ and I bonded immediately as well just as friends and as people, and I didn't want him going anywhere anytime soon. Lindsey was very likable as well, but I immediately recognized her as a threat. She was really good at getting information without giving much, and she clearly was pulling more strings than I could see. So while I wanted to work with Lindsey, I knew she was too much of a threat to take to the end.

So at the swap, I had a final deal with Tai, Julia, and I believe LJ (though the last one may have been made after merge). I was in a GREAT spot with final deals, and 2 of those three worked to my favor, arguably.

It was also at NuDetwah that I found the Detwah idol. To me, the only thing more powerful than an idol is KNOWING NO ONE ELSE HAS IT. So at the swap, I had 2 out of the game's 3 idols in my pocket. Many people were fearful of idols in this game, but I wasn't at all. Having the two idols to just SIT on gave me power to take out who I wanted, when I wanted.

It's also worth noting that I voted correctly at every vote premerge. Postmerge, I had to get a little scrappier.

MERGE PT 1.

I hadn't even MET half of the people on the merged tribe. This in and of itself was scary to me, who so heavily relies on the social aspect of the game. Julia was convinced Nick was gunning for her, and though my gut said to just vote with everyone else... the threat of losing Julia was too scary. Me, Julia, LJ, Lindsey, and Tai all voted incorrectly for Nick at the merge. This showed me that Tai was on our side still (which I hadn't really doubted), but it also solidified a majority alliance that none of my crew was a part of, with the exception of Nick. I had. To get. To WORK. Being on the wrong side of the merge vote, is, in many cases, a death sentence.

My main goal throughout the entire second half of the game was to KEEP MY CORE POSSE SAFE, my core posse being the entire minority alliance. So I got to work infiltrating the majority for that purpose. Throughout much of the merge, I was seen as on the bottom of both alliances... which skeeved me out to many, but ultimately got me here.

After the merge vote, I got to work saying that I didn't really have any allegiances, and asking Nick to please protect me - a promise he made good on. I was not a target during this part of the game much, with the exception of Trish.

I knew that Trish was throwing my name around. So when Trish wanted to flip to the minority, I didn't believe or trust her. However, even if I had, I would still have insisted on voting for Natalie to SHOW TO THE MAJORITY that I was with THEM and not with my actual minority alliance. I knew they would tell me a fake name (I would have done this too, why trust me?), and knew there would be a casualty. IIRC, I truly suspected Lindsey to go home. Which would have been a blow to the minority alliance as a whole, but at the end of the day, a Lindsey boot would have been fine with me because of how threatening she was.

Honestly, the Julia boot was the only real casualty in my whole game. Every other vote worked in my favor... but losing Julia sucked. HOWEVER, it was clear we were close. So really, the Julia blindside helped my game as a solo agent, as much as I hated losing her.

So the majority blindsided me with that, but the only true show of trust is at tribal... and I had voted how the majority expected I would. One step closer to protecting my TRUE allies.

However, the majority still didn't FULLY trust me. Nick and Andrea both were actively working with me and wanted to trust me, but the rest... not so much. I didn't fully know this at the time, but the fact that I wasn't added to the alliance chat made it pretty obvious. Even then, though, I couldn't DREAM they would lie to me about the vote a second time, after a harped on and on and on about how I don't care who I work with (a lie) as long as I'm not being lied to all the time. I made it pretty clear that if they lied to me again after I took a big risk by voting for Natalie when they voted Julia off, that I would really hate the majority's guts.

So when Andrea and Nick said they were voting for Tai (and even vocalized that I CANNOT TELL HIM they were voting for him, for fear of an idol), I IMMEDIATELY gave my idol to Tai and told him to use it. This vote was the real crux of me playing both sides in the early merge. The likelihood that they would lie to me twice was, in my view, really small. Tai could play it, pretend he had found it, and no one would even know that I was involved at all. So I VOTED FOR TAI, fully aware he would use the idol and be safe, PURELY to further infiltrate the majority alliance and KEEP HIM SAFE, along with LJ and Lindsey. Tai knew this, and knew that our only hope in this game was for the majority to trust me.

However, as we all know now, the majority DID lie to me a second time. The idol was wasted, and Trish went home. This worked great for me anyway, because Trish was the only one to mention me as a threat, as far as I know. And, it was the final nail in the coffin to start to take out the majority from within.

Immediately after the vote, I hammed up how I voted for Tai and I couldn't believe the majority STILL didn't trust me, and it FINALLY WORKED. Andrea was WITH ME 100% for the rest of the game, I was added to the alliance chat, and I had finally fully infiltrated the majority with only the Julia casualty. I FINALLY had the power I needed to keep my close allies in the game. And, though I know Lindsey was wary of me, I showed ONLY TO MY POSSE that I was truly loyal to them by giving Tai my idol. I was the ultimate mole at this stage of the game, and tbh I felt like a total badass and it was awesome.

Interestingly, while the lies about the votes was the beginning of Andrea and I working closely together, it really was the end of any hope of working with Nick at that point. Between all the lies by both of us throughout the game and me voting for him at the merge, I was sure that ship had sailed. However, as Nick pointed out in the Public round, I made sure to always keep the possibility of working together open.

THE MOLE.

I had power. I had influence. And I had to use them to protect my peeps.

By this point, Andrea wanted to work with me for real. Also, Steve had started to realize he was at the bottom of the majority. I had options. Both of them mentioned it was almost time to start taking out threats from the majority. Buuuuut, they just wanted to take out ONE more person from the minority, just to be safe. I couldn't have that.

"I just want to make sure we make a move, before a move is made on us." "If we vote out a member of the minority, it's a wasted vote. But if we work with them a little longer? Maybe they'll be more likely to vote for us at the end!" Etc., etc. I threw everything at the wall to get Andrea and Steve to make a move NOW, before voting out another member of my trusted core. My first idea was to get Steve and Morgan to vote with us, as Morgan really seemed to like me and to not be too attached to the majority. But, it really took Andrea being involved for Steve to feel comfortable with the flip. So, after planting these subtle seeds, Andrea and Steve were all in to vote Spencer. The majority had started to eat itself alive <3

I worked with Steve, Andrea, and Natalie also through the next votes of Morgan and Nick. Cannibalizing, and letting the previous minority slide under that radar. In this process, I also grew really close to Steve and Andrea - they were no longer numbers I wanted to use to protect my friends. They were my friends.

At f7, I couldn't hide anymore. I had two tight alliances: the old minority (Tai, LJ, Lindsey) and the power majority (Andrea, Steve, Nat). I had to choose... it was down to the two cores of the alliances, and I had to choose which final 4 I wanted to go with. Because BOTH were offering me f4 deals. I knew that LJ and Lindsey were arguably the tightest two in the game, and that, if I went to f4 with them, they would (at BEST) have me go to rocks against whoever me and Tai would vote for. I didn't think I could come between those two, and I DIDN'T want fourth place. The power majority, on the other hand, was perfect. Andrea was the clearest threat to win, so she was going to be my meat shield at final 4. I would have a f3 with Steve and Nat, both of whom I had underestimated at the time. So, I voted with the power majority to vote out Lindsey, whom I had seen as a massive threat since the day I met her. Once again, I had more options in which this game was winnable for me.

As an aside, I knew Lindsey had the idol once she said something along the lines of "You'll let me know what you decide, either way?" about a half hour before the tribal she played it - from then on I was extremely vague with her, leading her to play an idol on Tai instead of herself. Of course I can't take sole credit for this, but it's worth noting.

ENDGAME.

Somewhere between the Lindsey vote and Andrea's boot, I realized how threatening both Steve and Nat were. Steve was a comp beast, and, since this is before ~~~the excel sheet~~~, I thought he was the biggest threat to my game, excluding my meat shield of Andrea. I didn't dream Nat would flip at this stage. This was the last chance to play my idol, so I wasn't worried at all, and thought Steve was going home. I voted for Steve... and then Andrea went home.

Of course, Andrea needed to go. By far, she was the biggest threat. But the deception - telling me they'll vote Steve, then voting Andrea - by Tai, Nat, and LJ was a baaaaaaaaaaad omen for Steve and me. Steve and I had to figure something out FAST if we wanted to escape being 5th and 4th. Which is pretty funny, considering we were clinging to each other literally an hour after I had been fighting so hard to get him out.

Steve and I stayed up until 2 am trying to save our asses, though he was mostly there for support and bouncing ideas off of while I created ~~~the excel sheet~~~ of all possible f3s with the 5 people left, and who each juror would vote for in each scenario. It took forever, but I think it may have saved my ass.

By my calculations, in almost every iteration, I would win, and Steve would get no votes, if any. He wasn't as much of a jury threat as I thought he was, as much as I adore the guy. It would be smart for Nat/Tai/LJ to vote me out then, at f5. The excel also helped me to realize what a massive threat Nat was... sure, she was quiet. But she was always voting correctly, was wicked smart, and had the admiration of a decent number of jury members.

The whole point of this spreadsheet was to find a way to keep me (and I guess Steve, but mostly me) that would BENEFIT Tai, LJ, and/or Natalie. And I found that loophole. 7 MINUTES BEFORE THE F5 TRIBAL, I proposed to Natalie that the scenario in which Natalie would have won by the biggest margin is with me and LJ. This would be because LJ and I have played similar games (not really true, but I could sell it), and would divide the same pool of jury votes - LJ and I would not be taking votes from her, but if she took Tai instead of me, LJ would give her a run for her money.

Do I really believe this would have been the case? Maybe a little. I certainly blew it out of proportion to try to convince Natalie that it was the best thing for HER GAME to keep me and LJ. I didn't have time to go over it in detail, but I think it was enough to lead her to crusade against Steve in that tribal. This, along with my bond with LJ, helped me to survive until the next round.

I won final immunity, so the plan of convincing Nat to vote out Tai didn't really matter... it also probably wouldn't have worked. But, I think that it was enough for me to survive Steve at f5, which was all it needed to do.

At f4, voting out Natalie was obvious. According to my excel, a f3 with LJ and Tai led to MY best chance of victory.

CONCLUSION, OR "OK I GUESS THIS WASN'T TRUNCATED BUT I'M SERIOUSLY DONE NOW."

After being on the wrong side of an extremely critical merge vote, I brought the people I was closest with (excluding Julia) - Tai and LJ - to the end with me by infiltrating the majority, nudging it to eat itself from within, and eventually choosing the path that led to the greatest chance of my victory... all while being completely fearless regarding idols. Most of my post-merge game was about protecting LJ and Tai as well as myself, and I've done that.

I'm extremely proud of the way I've played this game, and I'm also proud of the relationships I've formed with you all - even if we never talked about strategy whatsoever.
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Aubry

  • Al-Mahrah Tribe
  • Posts: 623
By Aubry
#6330 Second pass:



Hi, jury! Thank you so much for being a large part of what made this game so dang enjoyable. I really feel like I made some deep connections in this game with many of you, and am eager to keep building on that after tonight. <3

I think a lot of you already know a lot about my game, but I want to make everything clear. So in my statement, I’d like to outline every step of my game.

OG AOMAK.

On OG Aomak, my tightest allies were Nick and Tai. Though Nick worried me as an ally (especially after lying to me about an idol at the first tribal), I was looking forward to moving past that and having a very powerful player on my side. Tai was, at that time, the most trustworthy person in this game, and I wanted to go all the way to the end with him - which we did accomplish, admittedly with some chaos thrown in. I really felt like I had genuine connections with both of them and, even though they weren’t really jiving together, I was excited about how far we could get together.

The second important thing to happen in OG Aomak was that I FOUND THE IDOL using the clues that Nick had given me. Tai did not find it, but, later in the game, that was the perception I wanted. More on all of that at the Trish boot.

SWAP.

Immediately after the swap, Julia and I bonded HARD. We had had a relationship on OG Aomak, but it absolutely paled in comparison to what it became at the swap. Julia was my heart in this game, and I would have done anything for her. Honestly, I looked forward to chatting with her every day, and KNEW we had each other’s backs until the very end. Julia and I were so close that I would have cut Nick and Tai before I cut her, despite how close of allies Nick and Tai were to me pre-swap.

This is also when my bonds with LJ and Lindsey were born. LJ and I bonded immediately as people, and I didn't want him going anywhere anytime soon. Lindsey was very likable as well, but I immediately recognized her as a threat. She was really good at getting information without giving much, and I thought she was pulling more strings than I could see. So while I wanted to work with Lindsey, I knew she was too much of a threat to take to the end.

So at the swap, I had individual final deals with Tai, Julia, and I believe LJ (though the last one may have been made after merge). I was in a GREAT spot with final deals before the merge even happened - and 2 of those 3 ended up paying dividends!

It was also at NuDetwah that I found the Detwah idol. To me, the only thing more powerful than an idol is KNOWING NO ONE ELSE HAS IT. So at the swap, I had 2 out of the game's 3 idols in my pocket. Many people were fearful of idols in this game, but I wasn't at all. Having the two idols to just SIT on gave me power to take out who I wanted, when I wanted. The only times the last idol was relevant was to purposely pin paranoia on Spencer, and very carefully handling the situation when I figured out Lindsey actually had it.

It's also worth noting that I voted correctly at every vote premerge. Postmerge, I had to get a little scrappier.

MERGE PT 1.

I hadn't even MET half of the people on the merged tribe. This in and of itself was scary to me, as I heavily rely on the social aspect of the game. Julia was convinced Nick was gunning for her, and though my gut said to just vote with everyone else... the threat of losing Julia was too scary. Me, Julia, LJ, Lindsey, and Tai all voted incorrectly for Nick at the merge. This showed me that Tai was on our side still (which I hadn't really doubted), but it also solidified a majority alliance that none of my crew was a part of, with the exception of Nick. I had. To get. To WORK. Being on the wrong side of the merge vote, is, in many cases, a death sentence.

My main goal throughout the entire second half of the game was to KEEP MY CORE POSSE SAFE, my core posse being the entire minority alliance. So I got to work infiltrating the majority for that purpose. Throughout much of the merge, I was seen as on the bottom of both alliances... which skeeved me out to many, but ultimately got me here.

After the merge vote, I got to work saying that I didn't really have any allegiances, and asking Nick to please protect me - a promise he made good on. I was not a target during this part of the game much, with the exception of Trish.

I knew that Trish was throwing my name around. So when Trish wanted to flip to the minority, I didn't believe or trust her. However, even if I had, I would still have insisted on voting for Natalie to SHOW TO THE MAJORITY that I was with THEM and not with my actual minority alliance. I knew they would tell me a fake name (I would have done this too, why trust me?), and knew there would be a casualty from my side to pay for that. IIRC, I truly suspected Lindsey to go home. Which would have been a blow to the minority alliance as a whole, but at the end of the day, a Lindsey boot would have been fine with me because of how threatening she was.

Honestly, the Julia boot was the only real casualty in my whole game. Every other vote worked in my favor... but losing Julia sucked. HOWEVER, it was clear we were close. So really, the Julia blindside helped my game as a solo agent, as much as I hated losing her.

So the majority blindsided me with that, but the only true show of trust is at tribal... and I had voted how the majority expected I would. One step closer to protecting my TRUE allies.

However, the majority still didn't FULLY trust me. Nick and Andrea (and to a much lesser extent, Steve) were actively working with me and wanted to trust me, but the rest... not so much. The fact that I wasn't added to the alliance chat made it pretty obvious. Even then, though, I couldn't DREAM they would lie to me about the vote a second time, after I harped on and on and on about how I don't care who I work with (a lie) as long as I'm not being lied to all the time. I made it pretty clear that if they lied to me again after I keep taking big risks for them, that I would really hate the majority's guts.

So when Andrea and Nick said they were voting for Tai (and even vocalized that I CANNOT TELL HIM they were voting for him, for fear of an idol), I IMMEDIATELY gave my idol to Tai and told him to use it. This vote was the real crux of me playing both sides in the early merge. The likelihood that they would lie to me twice was, in my view, really small. I wanted to vote for Tai to show the majority they could trust me, but also save Tai. Tai could play it, pretend he had found it, and no one would even know that I was involved at all. So I VOTED FOR TAI, fully aware he would use the idol and be safe, PURELY to further infiltrate the majority alliance and KEEP HIM SAFE, along with LJ and Lindsey. Tai knew this, and knew that our only hope in this game was for the majority to trust me.

However, as we all know now, the majority DID lie to me a second time. The idol was wasted, and Trish went home. This worked great for me anyway, because Trish was the only one to mention me as a threat, as far as I know. And, it was the final nail in the coffin to start to take out the majority from within.

Immediately after the vote, I hammed up how betrayed I felt. I had voted for Tai and I couldn't believe the majority STILL didn't trust me, jeez‼ And it FINALLY WORKED. Andrea was WITH ME 100% for the rest of the game, I was added to the alliance chat, and I had finally fully infiltrated the majority with only the Julia casualty. I FINALLY had the power I needed to keep my close allies in the game. And, I showed ONLY TO MY POSSE that I was truly loyal to them by giving Tai my idol. I was the ultimate mole at this stage of the game, and tbh I felt like a total badass and it was awesome.

Interestingly, while the lies about the votes was the beginning of Andrea and I working closely together, it really was the end of any hope of working with Nick at that point. Between all the lies by both of us throughout the game and me voting for him at the merge, I was sure that ship had sailed. However, as Nick pointed out in the Public round, I made sure to always keep the idea of working together open.

THE MOLE.

I had power. I had influence. And I had to use them to protect my peeps.

By this point, Andrea wanted to work with me for real. Also, Steve had started to realize he was at the bottom of the majority. I had options. Both of them mentioned it was almost time to start taking out threats from the majority. Buuuuut, they just wanted to take out ONE more person from the minority, just to be safe. They didn’t want to make a move. I couldn't have that.

"I just want to make sure we make a move, before a move is made on us." "If we vote out a member of the minority, it's a wasted vote. But if we work with them a little longer? Maybe they'll be more likely to vote for us at the end!" Etc., etc. I threw everything at the wall to get Andrea and Steve to make a move NOW, before voting out another member of my trusted core. My first idea was to get Steve and Morgan to vote with us, as Morgan really seemed to like me and to not be too attached to the majority. But, it really took Andrea being involved for Steve to feel comfortable with the move. So, after planting these subtle seeds, Andrea and Steve were all in to vote Spencer. The majority had started to eat itself alive <3

I worked with Steve, Andrea, and Natalie also through the next votes of Morgan and Nick. Cannibalizing, and letting the previous minority slide under that radar. In this process, I also grew really close to Steve and Andrea - they were no longer numbers to protect my friends. They WERE my friends. I was a vital part in 2 separate f4 deals: me/Steve/Andrea/Natalie, and me/Tai/LJ/Lindsey. It was a great place to be, because EVERYONE needed my vote.

At f7, I couldn't hide anymore. I had two tight alliances: the old minority (Tai, LJ, Lindsey) and the power majority (Andrea, Steve, Nat). I had to choose... it was down to the two cores of the alliances, and I had to choose which final 4 I wanted to go with. I knew that LJ and Lindsey were arguably the tightest two in the game, and that, if I went to f4 with them, they would (at BEST) have me go to rocks against whoever me and Tai would vote for. I didn't think I could come between those two, and I DIDN'T want fourth place. The power majority, on the other hand, was perfect. Andrea was the clearest threat to win, so she was going to be my meat shield at final 4. I would have a f3 with Steve and Nat, both of whom I had underestimated at the time. So, I voted with the power majority to vote out Lindsey, whom I had seen as a massive threat since the day I met her. Once again, I had more options in which this game was winnable for me.

As an aside, I knew Lindsey had the idol once she said something along the lines of "You'll let me know what you decide, either way?" about a half hour before tribal - from then on I was extremely vague with her, leading her to play an idol on Tai instead of herself. Of course I can't take sole credit for this, but it's worth noting.

ENDGAME.

Somewhere between the Lindsey vote and Andrea's boot, I realized how threatening both Steve and Nat were. Steve was a comp beast, and, since this is before ~~~the excel sheet~~~, I thought he was the biggest threat to my game, excluding my meat shield of Andrea. I didn't dream Nat would flip at this stage. This was the last chance to play my idol, so I wasn't worried at all, and thought Steve was going home. I voted for Steve... and then Andrea went home.

Of course, Andrea needed to go. By far, she was the biggest threat. But the deception - telling me they'll vote Steve, then voting Andrea - by Tai, Nat, and LJ was a baaaaaaaaaaad omen for Steve and me. Steve and I had to figure something out FAST if we wanted to escape being 5th and 4th. Which is pretty funny, considering we were clinging to each other literally an hour after I had been fighting so hard to get him out.

Steve and I stayed up until 2 am trying to save our asses, though he was mostly there for support and bouncing ideas off of while I created ~~~the excel sheet~~~ of all possible f3s with the 5 people left, and who each juror would vote for in each scenario. It took forever, but I think it may have saved my ass.

By my calculations, in almost every iteration we were in, I would win, and Steve would get no votes, if any. He wasn't as much of a jury threat as I thought he was, as much as I adore the guy. It would be smart for Nat/Tai/LJ to vote me out then, at f5. The excel also helped me to realize what a massive threat Nat was... sure, she was quiet. But she was always voting correctly, was wicked smart, and had the admiration of a decent number of jury members. In a f3 of her, LJ, and Tai, I had her winning by a small margin against LJ.

The whole point of this spreadsheet was to find a way to keep me (and I guess Steve, but mostly me) in the game that would BENEFIT Tai, LJ, and/or Natalie. And I found that loophole. Mere minutes before tribal, I proposed to Natalie that the scenario in which Natalie would win by the biggest margin is with me and LJ. This would be because LJ and I have played similar games (not really true, but I could sell it), and would divide the same pool of jury votes. LJ and I would not be taking votes from her. She would get the same x amount of votes whether she took me or Tai, but if she took Tai instead of me, all votes that would have gone to me would go to LJ, and LJ would give her a run for her money.

I didn't have time to go over it in detail, but I think it may have been just enough to lead her to crusade against Steve in that tribal. Nat can confirm or deny whether or , along with my bond with LJ, helped me to survive until the next round.

I won final immunity, so the plan of convincing Nat to vote out Tai didn't really matter... it also probably wouldn't have worked. But, I think that it was enough for me to survive Steve at f5, which was all it needed to do.

At f4, voting out Natalie was obvious. According to my excel, a f3 with LJ and Tai led to MY best chance of victory.

CONCLUSION, OR "OK I GUESS THIS WASN'T TRUNCATED BUT I'M SERIOUSLY DONE NOW."

After being on the wrong side of an extremely critical merge vote, I brought the people I was closest with (excluding Julia) - Tai and LJ - to the end with me by infiltrating the majority, nudging it to eat itself from within, and eventually choosing the path that led to the greatest chance of my victory... all while being completely fearless regarding idols. Most of my post-merge game was about protecting LJ and Tai as well as myself, and I've done that.

I'm extremely proud of the way I've played this game, and I'm also proud of the relationships I've formed with you all - even if we never talked about strategy whatsoever. As cliche and sappy as it sounds, this cast is what made this game so enjoyable, so thank you for your time and your friendship‼ I can’t wait to chat it up with you all again.
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Aubry

  • Al-Mahrah Tribe
  • Posts: 623
By Aubry
#6331 Second pass with typos fixed:


Hi, jury! Thank you so much for being a large part of what made this game so dang enjoyable. I really feel like I made some deep connections in this game with many of you, and am eager to keep building on that after tonight. <3

I think a lot of you already know a lot about my game, but I want to make everything clear. So in my statement, I’d like to outline every step of my game.

OG AOMAK.

On OG Aomak, my tightest allies were Nick and Tai. Though Nick worried me as an ally (especially after lying to me about an idol at the first tribal), I was looking forward to moving past that and having a very powerful player on my side. Tai was, at that time, the most trustworthy person in this game, and I wanted to go all the way to the end with him - which we did accomplish, admittedly with some chaos thrown in. I really felt like I had genuine connections with both of them and, even though they weren’t really jiving together, I was excited about how far we could get together.

The second important thing to happen in OG Aomak was that I FOUND THE IDOL using the clues that Nick had given me. Tai did not find it, but, later in the game, that was the perception I wanted. More on all of that at the Trish boot.

SWAP.

Immediately after the swap, Julia and I bonded HARD. We had had a relationship on OG Aomak, but it absolutely paled in comparison to what it became at the swap. Julia was my heart in this game, and I would have done anything for her. Honestly, I looked forward to chatting with her every day, and KNEW we had each other’s backs until the very end. Julia and I were so close that I would have cut Nick and Tai before I cut her, despite how close of allies Nick and Tai were to me pre-swap.

This is also when my bonds with LJ and Lindsey were born. LJ and I bonded immediately as people, and I didn't want him going anywhere anytime soon. Lindsey was very likable as well, but I immediately recognized her as a threat. She was really good at getting information without giving much, and I thought she was pulling more strings than I could see. So while I wanted to work with Lindsey, I knew she was too much of a threat to take to the end.

So at the swap, I had individual final deals with Tai, Julia, and I believe LJ (though the last one may have been made after merge). I was in a GREAT spot with final deals before the merge even happened - and 2 of those 3 ended up paying dividends!

It was also at NuDetwah that I found the Detwah idol. To me, the only thing more powerful than an idol is KNOWING NO ONE ELSE HAS IT. So at the swap, I had 2 out of the game's 3 idols in my pocket. Many people were fearful of idols in this game, but I wasn't at all. Having the two idols to just SIT on gave me power to take out who I wanted, when I wanted. The only times the last idol was relevant was to purposely pin paranoia on Spencer, and very carefully handling the situation when I figured out Lindsey actually had it.

It's also worth noting that I voted correctly at every vote premerge. Postmerge, I had to get a little scrappier.

MERGE PT 1.

I hadn't even MET half of the people on the merged tribe. This in and of itself was scary to me, as I heavily rely on the social aspect of the game. Julia was convinced Nick was gunning for her, and though my gut said to just vote with everyone else... the threat of losing Julia was too scary. Me, Julia, LJ, Lindsey, and Tai all voted incorrectly for Nick at the merge. This showed me that Tai was on our side still (which I hadn't really doubted), but it also solidified a majority alliance that none of my crew was a part of, with the exception of Nick. I had. To get. To WORK. Being on the wrong side of the merge vote, is, in many cases, a death sentence.

My main goal throughout the entire second half of the game was to KEEP MY CORE POSSE SAFE, my core posse being the entire minority alliance. So I got to work infiltrating the majority for that purpose. Throughout much of the merge, I was seen as on the bottom of both alliances... which skeeved me out to many, but ultimately got me here.

After the merge vote, I got to work saying that I didn't really have any allegiances, and asking Nick to please protect me - a promise he made good on. I was not a target during this part of the game much, with the exception of Trish.

I knew that Trish was throwing my name around. So when Trish wanted to flip to the minority, I didn't believe or trust her. However, even if I had, I would still have insisted on voting for Natalie to SHOW TO THE MAJORITY that I was with THEM and not with my actual minority alliance. I knew they would tell me a fake name (I would have done this too, why trust me?), and knew there would be a casualty from my side to pay for that. IIRC, I truly suspected Lindsey to go home. Which would have been a blow to the minority alliance as a whole, but at the end of the day, a Lindsey boot would have been fine with me because of how threatening she was.

Honestly, the Julia boot was the only real casualty in my whole game. Every other vote worked in my favor... but losing Julia sucked. HOWEVER, it was clear we were close. So really, the Julia blindside helped my game as a solo agent, as much as I hated losing her.

So the majority blindsided me with that, but the only true show of trust is at tribal... and I had voted how the majority expected I would. One step closer to protecting my TRUE allies.

However, the majority still didn't FULLY trust me. Nick and Andrea (and to a much lesser extent, Steve) were actively working with me and wanted to trust me, but the rest... not so much. The fact that I wasn't added to the alliance chat made it pretty obvious. Even then, though, I couldn't DREAM they would lie to me about the vote a second time, after I harped on and on and on about how I don't care who I work with (a lie) as long as I'm not being lied to all the time. I made it pretty clear that if they lied to me again after I keep taking big risks for them, that I would really hate the majority's guts.

So when Andrea and Nick said they were voting for Tai (and even vocalized that I CANNOT TELL HIM they were voting for him, for fear of an idol), I IMMEDIATELY gave my idol to Tai and told him to use it. This vote was the real crux of me playing both sides in the early merge. The likelihood that they would lie to me twice was, in my view, really small. I wanted to vote for Tai to show the majority they could trust me, but also save Tai. Tai could play it, pretend he had found it, and no one would even know that I was involved at all. So I VOTED FOR TAI, fully aware he would use the idol and be safe, PURELY to further infiltrate the majority alliance and KEEP HIM SAFE, along with LJ and Lindsey. Tai knew this, and knew that our only hope in this game was for the majority to trust me.

However, as we all know now, the majority DID lie to me a second time. The idol was wasted, and Trish went home. This worked great for me anyway, because Trish was the only one to mention me as a threat, as far as I know. And, it was the final nail in the coffin to start to take out the majority from within.

Immediately after the vote, I hammed up how betrayed I felt. I had voted for Tai and I couldn't believe the majority STILL didn't trust me, jeez‼ And it FINALLY WORKED. Andrea was WITH ME 100% for the rest of the game, I was added to the alliance chat, and I had finally fully infiltrated the majority with only the Julia casualty. I FINALLY had the power I needed to keep my close allies in the game. And, I showed ONLY TO MY POSSE that I was truly loyal to them by giving Tai my idol. I was the ultimate mole at this stage of the game, and tbh I felt like a total badass and it was awesome.

Interestingly, while the lies about the votes was the beginning of Andrea and I working closely together, it really was the end of any hope of working with Nick at that point. Between all the lies by both of us throughout the game and me voting for him at the merge, I was sure that ship had sailed. However, as Nick pointed out in the Public round, I made sure to always keep the idea of working together open.

THE MOLE.

I had power. I had influence. And I had to use them to protect my peeps.

By this point, Andrea wanted to work with me for real. Also, Steve had started to realize he was at the bottom of the majority. I had options. Both of them mentioned it was almost time to start taking out threats from the majority. Buuuuut, they just wanted to take out ONE more person from the minority, just to be safe. They didn’t want to make a move. I couldn't have that.

"I just want to make sure we make a move, before a move is made on us." "If we vote out a member of the minority, it's a wasted vote. But if we work with them a little longer? Maybe they'll be more likely to vote for us at the end!" Etc., etc. I threw everything at the wall to get Andrea and Steve to make a move NOW, before voting out another member of my trusted core. My first idea was to get Steve and Morgan to vote with us, as Morgan really seemed to like me and to not be too attached to the majority. But, it really took Andrea being involved for Steve to feel comfortable with the move. So, after planting these subtle seeds, Andrea and Steve were all in to vote Spencer. The majority had started to eat itself alive <3

I worked with Steve, Andrea, and Natalie also through the next votes of Morgan and Nick. Cannibalizing, and letting the previous minority slide under that radar. In this process, I also grew really close to Steve and Andrea - they were no longer numbers to protect my friends. They WERE my friends. I was a vital part in 2 separate f4 deals: me/Steve/Andrea/Natalie, and me/Tai/LJ/Lindsey. It was a great place to be, because EVERYONE needed my vote.

At f7, I couldn't hide anymore. I had two tight alliances: the old minority (Tai, LJ, Lindsey) and the power majority (Andrea, Steve, Nat). I had to choose... it was down to the two cores of the alliances, and I had to choose which final 4 I wanted to go with. I knew that LJ and Lindsey were arguably the tightest two in the game, and that, if I went to f4 with them, they would (at BEST) have me go to rocks against whoever me and Tai would vote for. I didn't think I could come between those two, and I DIDN'T want fourth place. The power majority, on the other hand, was perfect. Andrea was the clearest threat to win, so she was going to be my meat shield at final 4. I would have a f3 with Steve and Nat, both of whom I had underestimated at the time. So, I voted with the power majority to vote out Lindsey, whom I had seen as a massive threat since the day I met her. Once again, I had more options in which this game was winnable for me.

As an aside, I knew Lindsey had the idol once she said something along the lines of "You'll let me know what you decide, either way?" about a half hour before tribal - from then on I was extremely vague with her, leading her to play an idol on Tai instead of herself. Of course I can't take sole credit for this, but it's worth noting.

ENDGAME.

Somewhere between the Lindsey vote and Andrea's boot, I realized how threatening both Steve and Nat were. Steve was a comp beast, and, since this is before ~~~the excel sheet~~~, I thought he was the biggest threat to my game, excluding my meat shield of Andrea. I didn't dream Nat would flip at this stage. This was the last chance to play my idol, so I wasn't worried at all, and thought Steve was going home. I voted for Steve... and then Andrea went home.

Of course, Andrea needed to go. By far, she was the biggest threat. But the deception - telling me they'll vote Steve, then voting Andrea - by Tai, Nat, and LJ was a baaaaaaaaaaad omen for Steve and me. Steve and I had to figure something out FAST if we wanted to escape being 5th and 4th. Which is pretty funny, considering we were clinging to each other literally an hour after I had been fighting so hard to get him out.

Steve and I stayed up until 2 am trying to save our asses, though he was mostly there for support and bouncing ideas off of while I created ~~~the excel sheet~~~ of all possible f3s with the 5 people left, and who each juror would vote for in each scenario. It took forever, but I think it may have saved my ass.

By my calculations, in almost every iteration we were in, I would win, and Steve would get no votes, if any. He wasn't as much of a jury threat as I thought he was, as much as I adore the guy. It would be smart for Nat/Tai/LJ to vote me out then, at f5. The excel also helped me to realize what a massive threat Nat was... sure, she was quiet. But she was always voting correctly, was wicked smart, and had the admiration of a decent number of jury members. In a f3 of her, LJ, and Tai, I had her winning by a small margin against LJ.

The whole point of this spreadsheet was to find a way to keep me (and I guess Steve, but mostly me) in the game that would BENEFIT Tai, LJ, and/or Natalie. And I found that loophole. 7 MINUTES BEFORE THE F5 TRIBAL, I proposed to Natalie that the scenario in which Natalie would win by the biggest margin is with me and LJ. This would be because LJ and I have played similar games (not really true, but I could sell it), and would divide the same pool of jury votes. LJ and I would not be taking votes from her. She would get the same x amount of votes whether she took me or Tai, but if she took Tai instead of me, all votes that would have gone to me would go to LJ, and LJ would give her a run for her money.

I didn't have time to go over it in detail, but I think it may have been just enough to lead her to crusade against Steve in that tribal. Nat can confirm or deny whether or not my proposition was actually relevant, but I believe that, along with my bond with LJ, it helped me to survive until the next round.

I won final immunity, so the plan of convincing Nat to vote out Tai didn't really matter... it also probably wouldn't have worked. But, I think that it was enough for me to survive Steve at f5, which was all it needed to do.

At f4, voting out Natalie was obvious. According to my excel, a f3 with LJ and Tai led to MY best chance of victory.

CONCLUSION, OR "OK I GUESS THIS WASN'T TRUNCATED BUT I'M SERIOUSLY DONE NOW."

After being on the wrong side of an extremely critical merge vote, I brought the people I was closest with (excluding Julia) - Tai and LJ - to the end with me by infiltrating the majority, nudging it to eat itself from within, and eventually choosing the path that led to the greatest chance of my victory... all while being completely fearless regarding idols. Most of my post-merge game was about protecting LJ and Tai as well as myself, and I've done that.

I'm extremely proud of the way I've played this game, and I'm also proud of the relationships I've formed with you all - even if we never talked about strategy whatsoever. As cliche and sappy as it sounds, this cast is what made this game so enjoyable, so thank you for your time and your friendship‼ I can’t wait to chat it up with you all again.
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Aubry

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By Aubry
#6405 HI, THIS IS MY FINAL ONE!! <3

Hi, jury! Thank you so much for being a large part of what made this game so dang enjoyable. I really feel like I made some deep connections in this game with many of you, and am eager to keep building on that after tonight. <3

I think a lot of you already know a lot about my game, but I want to make everything clear. So in my statement, I’d like to outline every step of my game.

OG AOMAK.

On OG Aomak, my tightest allies were Nick and Tai. Though Nick worried me as an ally (especially after lying to me about an idol at the first tribal, and especially seeing the bonds he was making on other tribes), at the time I wanted to move past that and have a very powerful player on my side. Tai was, at that time, the most trustworthy person in this game, and I wanted to go all the way to the end with him - which we did accomplish, admittedly with some chaos thrown in. I really felt like I had genuine connections with both of them and, even though they weren’t really jiving together, I was excited about how far we could get together.

The second important thing to happen in OG Aomak was that I FOUND THE IDOL using the clues that Nick had given me. Tai did not find it, but, later in the game, that was the perception I wanted. More on all of that at the Trish boot.

SWAP.

Immediately after the swap, Julia and I bonded HARD. We had had a relationship on OG Aomak, but it absolutely paled in comparison to what it became at the swap. Julia was my heart in this game, and I would have done anything for her. Honestly, I looked forward to chatting with her every day, and KNEW we had each other’s backs until the very end. Julia and I were so close that I would have cut Nick and Tai before I cut her, despite how close of allies Nick and Tai were to me pre-swap.

This is also when my bonds with LJ and Lindsey were born. LJ and I bonded immediately as people, and I didn't want him going anywhere anytime soon. He and I quickly made a deal to go as far as we possibly could together. Lindsey was very likable as well, but I immediately recognized her as a threat. She was really good at getting information without giving much, and I thought she was pulling more strings than I could see. So while I wanted to work with Lindsey, I knew she was too much of a threat to take to the end.

So at the swap, I had individual final deals with Tai, Julia, and LJ (though the last one may have been made after merge). I was in a GREAT spot with final deals before the merge even happened - and 2 of those 3 ended up paying dividends!

It was also at NuDetwah that I found the Detwah idol. To me, the only thing more powerful than an idol is KNOWING NO ONE ELSE HAS IT. So at the swap, I had 2 out of the game's 3 idols in my pocket. Many people were fearful of idols in this game, but I wasn't at all. Having the two idols to just SIT on gave me power to take out who I wanted, when I wanted. The only times the last idol was relevant was to purposely pin paranoia on Spencer, and very carefully handling the situation when I figured out Lindsey actually had it.

It's also worth noting that I voted correctly at every vote premerge. Postmerge, I had to get a little scrappier.

MERGE BABY!!!

I hadn't even MET half of the people on the merged tribe. This in and of itself was scary to me, as I heavily rely on the social aspect of the game. Julia was convinced Nick was gunning for her, and though my gut said to just vote with everyone else... the threat of losing Julia was too scary. Me, Julia, LJ, Lindsey, and Tai all voted incorrectly for Nick at the merge. This showed me that Tai was on our side still (which I hadn't really doubted), but it also solidified a majority alliance that none of my crew was a part of, with the exception of Nick. I had. To get. To WORK. Being on the wrong side of the merge vote, is, in many cases, a death sentence.

My main goal throughout the entire second half of the game was to KEEP MY CORE POSSE SAFE, my core posse being the entire minority alliance. So I got to work infiltrating the majority for that purpose. Throughout much of the merge, I was seen as on the bottom of both alliances... which skeeved me out to many, but ultimately got me here.

After the merge vote, I got to work saying that I didn't really have any allegiances, that I wanted to work with the majority, and asking Nick to please protect me on the other side. I was not a target during this part of the game much, with the exception of Trish.

I knew that Trish was throwing my name around. So when Trish wanted to flip to the minority, I didn't believe or trust her. However, even if I had, I would still have insisted on voting for Natalie to SHOW TO THE MAJORITY that I was with THEM and not with my actual minority alliance. I knew they would tell me a fake name (I would have done this too, why trust me?), and knew there would be a casualty from my side to pay for that. In the long run, I knew it would pay off. IIRC, I truly suspected Lindsey to go home. Which would have been a blow to the minority alliance as a whole, but at the end of the day, a Lindsey boot would have been fine with me because of how threatening she was.

Honestly, the Julia boot was the only real casualty in my whole game. Every other vote worked in my favor... but losing Julia sucked. HOWEVER, it was clear we were close. So really, the Julia blindside helped my game as a solo agent, as much as I hated losing her. The majority blindsided me with that, but the only true show of trust is at tribal... and I had voted how the majority expected I would. One step closer to protecting my allies.

However, the majority still didn't FULLY trust me. Nick and Andrea (and to a much lesser extent, Steve) were actively working with me and wanted to trust me, but the rest... not so much. The fact that I wasn't added to the alliance chat made it pretty obvious. Even then, though, I couldn't DREAM they would lie to me about the vote a second time, after I harped on and on and on about how I don't care who I work with (a lie) as long as I'm not being lied to all the time. I made it pretty clear that if they lied to me again after I keep taking big risks for them, that I would really hate the majority's guts.

So when Andrea and Nick said they were voting for Tai (and even vocalized that I CANNOT TELL HIM they were voting for him, for fear of an idol), I IMMEDIATELY gave my idol to Tai and told him to use it. This vote was the real crux of me playing both sides in the early merge. The likelihood that they would lie to me twice was, in my view, really small. I wanted to vote for Tai to show the majority they could trust me, but also save Tai. Tai could play it, pretend he had found it, and no one would even know that I was involved at all. So I VOTED FOR TAI, fully aware he would use the idol and be safe, PURELY to further infiltrate the majority alliance and KEEP HIM SAFE, along with LJ and Lindsey. Tai knew this, and knew that our only hope in this game was for the majority to trust me.

However, as we all know now, the majority DID lie to me a second time. The idol was wasted, and Trish went home. This worked great for me anyway, because Trish was the only one to mention me as a threat, as far as I know. And, it was the final nail in the coffin to start to take out the majority from within.

Immediately after the vote, I hammed up how betrayed I felt. I had voted for Tai and I couldn't believe the majority STILL didn't trust me, jeez‼ And it FINALLY WORKED. Andrea was WITH ME 100% for the rest of the game, I was added to the alliance chat, and I had finally fully infiltrated the majority with only the Julia casualty. I FINALLY had the power I needed to keep my original close allies in the game. And, I showed ONLY TO MY POSSE that I was truly loyal to them by giving Tai my idol. I was the ultimate mole at this stage of the game, and tbh I felt like a total badass and it was awesome.

Interestingly, while the lies about the votes was the beginning of Andrea and I working closely together, it really was the end of any hope of working with Nick at that point. Between all the lies by both of us throughout the game and me voting for him at the merge, I was sure that ship had sailed. However, as Nick pointed out in the Public round, I made sure to always keep the idea of working together open.

THE MOLE.

I had power. I had influence. And I had to use them to protect my peeps.

By this point, Andrea wanted to work with me for real. Also, Steve had started to realize he was at the bottom of the majority. I had options. Both of them mentioned it was almost time to start taking out threats from the majority. Buuuuut, they just wanted to take out ONE more person from the minority, just to be safe. They didn’t want to make a move. I couldn't have that - we needed to make a move now to protect my minority.

"I just want to make sure we make a move, before a move is made on us." "I'm soooo worried about Spencer's idol..." "If we vote out a member of the minority, it's a wasted vote. But if we work with them a little longer? Maybe they'll be more likely to vote for us at the end!" Etc., etc. I threw everything at the wall to get Andrea and Steve to make a move NOW, before voting out another member of my trusted core. My first idea was to get Steve and Morgan to vote with us, as Morgan really seemed to like me and to not be too attached to the majority. But, it really took Andrea being involved for Steve to feel comfortable with the move. So, after planting these subtle seeds, Andrea and Steve were all in to vote Spencer. The majority had started to eat itself alive <3

I worked with Steve, Andrea, and Natalie also through the next votes of Morgan and Nick. Cannibalizing, and letting the previous minority slide under that radar. In this process, I also grew really close to Steve and Andrea - they were no longer numbers to protect my friends. They WERE my friends. I had set myself up to be a vital part in 2 separate f4 deals: me/Steve/Andrea/Natalie, and me/Tai/LJ/Lindsey. It was a great place to be, because EVERYONE needed my vote.

PLANNING FOR THE END.

At f7, I couldn't hide anymore. I had two tight alliances: the old minority (Tai, LJ, Lindsey) and the power majority (Andrea, Steve, Nat). I had to choose... it was down to the two cores of the alliances, and I had to choose which final 4 I wanted to go with. I knew that LJ and Lindsey were arguably the tightest two in the game, and that, if I went to f4 with them, they would (at BEST) have me go to rocks against whoever me and Tai would vote for. I didn't think I could come between LJ and Lindsey, and I DIDN'T want fourth place. I even brought this up to Lindsey, and she said she wanted to go to the end with power players, and wouldn't boot me at f4. Maybe that was true, maybe it wasn't. She was so big of a threat in my mind, that I couldn't take that chance, especially if it could just mean losing to her at the end.

The power majority, on the other hand, was perfect. Andrea was the clearest threat to win, so she was going to be my meat shield at final 4. I would have a f3 with Steve and Nat, both of whom I had underestimated at the time. So, I voted with the power majority to vote out Lindsey, whom I had seen as a massive threat since the day I met her. Once again, I had more options in which this game was winnable for me.

As an aside, I knew Lindsey had the idol once she said something along the lines of "You'll let me know what you decide, either way?" about a half hour before tribal - from then on I was extremely vague with her, leading her to play an idol on Tai instead of herself. Of course I can't take sole credit for this, but it's worth noting.

ENDGAME.

Somewhere between the Lindsey vote and Andrea's boot, I realized how threatening both Steve and Nat were. Steve was a comp beast, and, since this is before ~~~the excel sheet~~~, I thought he was the biggest threat to my game, excluding my meat shield of Andrea. I didn't dream Nat would flip at this stage. This was the last chance to play my idol, so I wasn't worried at all, and thought Steve was going home. I voted for Steve... and then Andrea went home.

Of course, Andrea needed to go. By far, she was the biggest threat. But the deception - telling me they'll vote Steve, then voting Andrea - by Tai, Nat, and LJ was a baaaaaaaaaaad omen for Steve and me. Steve and I had to figure something out FAST if we wanted to escape being 5th and 4th. Which is pretty funny, considering we were clinging to each other literally an hour after I had been fighting so hard to get him out.

Steve and I stayed up until 2 am trying to save our asses. This is when I created ~~~the excel sheet~~~ of all possible f3s with the 5 people left, and who each juror would vote for in each scenario. It took forever, but I think it may have saved my ass.

By my calculations, in almost every iteration we were in, I would win, and Steve would get no votes, if any. He wasn't as much of a jury threat as I thought he was, as much as I adore the guy and would have strongly considered voting for him myself. It would be smart for Nat/Tai/LJ to vote me out then, at f5. The excel also helped me to realize what a massive threat Nat was... sure, she was quiet. But she was always voting correctly, was wicked smart, and had the admiration of a decent number of jury members. In a f3 of her, LJ, and Tai, I had her winning by a small margin against LJ.

The whole point of this spreadsheet was to find some sort of way to keep me (and Steve, but mostly me) in the game that would BENEFIT Tai, LJ, and/or Natalie so they would actually work with me. And I found that loophole. 7 MINUTES BEFORE THE F5 TRIBAL, I proposed to Natalie that the scenario in which Natalie would win by the biggest margin is with me and LJ. This would be because LJ and I have played similar games (not really true, but I could sell it), and would divide the same pool of jury votes. LJ and I would not be taking votes from her. She would get the same x amount of votes whether she took me or Tai, but if she took Tai instead of me, all votes that would have gone to me would go to LJ, and LJ would give her a run for her money.

I didn't have time to go over it in detail, but I think it may have been just enough to lead her to crusade against Steve in that tribal. Nat can confirm or deny whether or not my proposition was actually relevant, but I believe that, along with my bond with LJ, it helped me to survive until the next round.

I won final immunity, so the plan of convincing Nat to vote out Tai didn't really matter... it also probably wouldn't have worked. But, I think that it was enough for me to survive Steve at f5, which was all it needed to do.

At f4, voting out Natalie was obvious. According to my excel, a f3 with LJ and Tai led to MY best chance of victory.

CONCLUSION, AKA SPARKNOTES.

In the premerge, I fostered deep relationships that would last throughout the game. After being on the wrong side of an extremely critical merge vote, I brought my closest allies at the time (excluding Julia) to the end with me by infiltrating the majority, nudging it to eat itself from within, and eventually choosing the path that led to the greatest chance of my victory... all while being fearless regarding idols. I believe that a large facet of what sets me apart from Tai and LJ is that I looked out for them, and I believe a large part of why they're here is that I was a subtle but sure voice on the other side. Maybe they would have lasted this far anyway, maybe the majority would have fallen apart anyway. But I made damn sure it happened.

I'm extremely proud of the way I've played this game, and I'm also proud of the relationships I've formed with you all - even if we never talked about strategy whatsoever. As cliche and sappy as it sounds, this cast is what made this game so enjoyable, so thank you for your time and your friendship‼ I can’t wait to chat it up with you all again. icon_wub
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Aubry

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  • Posts: 623
By Aubry
#7125 Well that went... poorly.

If I did lose this, and I think LJ really came out swinging so I may... If I lose this, at least I can say it's not because of my shitty FTC performance. People had a perception of me going in, and I did my best to overcome that.

I really thought I had this in the bag... who freaking knows now. I feel like I got knocked upside the head LOL.

I will be SINCERELY and truly happy if LJ wins it. If Tai wins it, that'd be okay I guess. So really, it's all good.

I WANTED TO WIN SO BAD but... it's all over now. Regardless, I'm extremely happy with how I did in this game, and how I communicated it.
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Aubry

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By Aubry
#7249 Just for fun, JUST FOR LAUGHS because I am historically COMICALLY bad at this... let's see who I think everyone will vote for.

Julia: Me.
Trish: LJ. Maybe me.
Spencer: LJ. Maybe me.
Morgan: mmmmmme??? Maybe LJ
Nick: me?????????????????????????????????? maybe lj?????
Lindsey: LJ
Andrea: Me, maybe JUST MAYBE LJ
Steve: hahahahaahah who knows. me??????????? ahahhahahahah this ftc YIKES. Maybeeee oh honestly it's a toss up. Let's say tai for a secondary.
Nat: me.

That's 6 votes me, 3 votes LJ. Only 3 of my votes are me being confident thooooooo

Switching the non-confident to the secondary options:

That's... 4 votes me, 4 votes LJ, 1 vote Tai.

AY YI YI THIS IS GONNA BE CLOSE

BUT ALSO IM SHIT AT PREDICTIONS SO WHO KNOWS LMAO

I guess we'll see tomorrow!!
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Aubry

  • Al-Mahrah Tribe
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By Aubry
#7296 Me in last night's FTC
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Aubry

  • Al-Mahrah Tribe
  • Posts: 623

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