- Tue May 16, 2017 9:35:49 am
#5093
So I had a really pretty confessional last night, but the site is crashing on me last night and today so it got deleted so here's the sparknotes for it. Also pretty concerned cuz I can't send PMs OR chats aaaaaand I really need to do WORK on this game today yikes
Kelly, it seems highly likely that a "goat f3" (nat, lj, and tai) is going to be real. I underestimated the heck out of Natalie, and EVEN LJ!!!, MY LOVE IN THIS GAME LJ!!!!, lied to me about last vote. The perception in this game is that, if me or Steve is in the f3, they will lose.
I honestly don't think that's true for Steve, but it is true for me. I WILL win if I get to the end with a majority of possible f3s. AND THEY VOTED OUT MY MEAT SHIELD OF ANDREA (BASTARDS!!!!!!!!!!!) SO yeah, I'm a massive threat and it's hard to hide that.
OK so I analyzed every single possible f3 from the f5 that are left. Admittedly, I'm historically terrible at predicting jury votes BUT THIS IS THE ONLY HOPE I HAVE. And there are two important findings:
1. In a "goat f3," it's gonna be VERY close between LJ and Nat. So close, in fact, that, similarly to the entire post-merge, the vote will depend on my jury vote and Steve's jury vote. Both of us are leaning towards LJ at this point, but... can be swayed? For the sake of this argument, let's say LJ.
Now if I'm Natalie, I don't like this. I want to improve my chances more than that! More than depending on MY vote (I LOVE LJ) and Steve's (who told me he's leaning toward LJ)! So the next logical step for Nat? Vote out LJ, right?
According to MY predictions, no. Because unfortunately, she'd need to replace LJ with me or Steve. And in a nat/tai/me f3, I win. In a nat/tai/steve f3, tai wins.
HOWEVER, that brings me to my second finding (can you tell I'm at a scientific conference right now?)
2. If Nat votes out Tai, and replaces him with EITHER me OR STEVE, she has a better chance of winning. In a nat/lj/me f3, yeah I get votes, but they're all votes that WOULD HAVE GONE TO LJ. The margin of victory for Nat is larger if the lindsey niche is split between me and LJ. Steve has a similar but much smaller effect - the difference between a "goat f3" and a nat/lj/steve f3 is like 1 vote - but Tai would probably be a vote for Nat, which is, again, in her best interest.
So IT IS IN NAT'S BEST INTEREST TO VOTE OUT TAI TONIGHT. I sincerely believe this, I'm not trying to pull anything tricky. I mean obviously the only reason I'm even thinking about this is because my ass is on the line, but I really think that Nat has a great chance, and will improve it without Tai.
So I need to pitch this to her. I will be honest with her, remind her that there aren't any idols or anything, and I have no hope of having my "dream" f3s come true. I am at her mercy to make it to the end, I know that, she knows that. My only hope is to explain the above, which I believe is the truth.
The other, MUCH less likely option for me is actually sticking with Tai and LJ. WHICH I WOULD LOVE TO DO, I WOULD WIN THAT SO HARD. But will they stick with me? Probably not. Possibly... if I can REALLY ham up how much I would hate them if they don't take me. But I'm not hopeful about my friends keeping their words at this point. THEY'D BE DUMB TO LOL I WOULD WIN SOOOOOOO HAAAAARD in that scenario!
So yeah... Hitting up Natalie. I won't even be there at the challenge tonight (CURSE THIS CONFERENCE!!!!!!!), so it's my only hope.
