- Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:46:09 pm
#151
Detailed, intoxicated thoughts will be posted here following the conclusion of each episode (and a bonus one to start off the game!)
- Fri Apr 21, 2017 8:25:06 pm
#152
Love it.
- Mon May 15, 2017 6:03:43 pm
#4582
Ok so it turns out I'm an alcoholic and a workaholic so I didn't really do this during the season. But nonetheless...
**edit: formatting**
Joaq's F6 Preview
The Contenders
**edit: formatting**
Joaq's F6 Preview
The Contenders
- LJ
As it stands now and barring any unlikely immunity wins, I have LJ as the winner of Stranded in Socotra. I think the most likely F3 combination is LJ, Tai and Natalie (which is the combo all three of them want, I believe) in which LJ would win pretty clearly IMO. He hasn't played a flashy game by any means, but he has decent relationships with the jury, recognizes his way to the win and has developed the relationships necessary to get him there, which makes him a decent player by any means, albeit a little boring. - Aubry
Aubry is who I'm rooting for here in the end game, not necessarily because I love her as a person, but because what it would take for her to win would hands down be the most exciting way to finish the game, and it would take some great skill to be able to do it. I think Aubry has a pretty good read on the jury and who she wants to go to the end with, but she's not in the best position socially considering that Natalie/Tai/LJ want to go to the end together. She is getting somewhere with the "meat shield" strategy of keeping Andrea in the game so the target is off of her back, but I really worry for her once Andrea is gone. I think tonight she needs to use her idol to get out Natalie in order to force Tai + LJ to align with her and keep the focus on Andrea. After that, she'd have to hope Steve/Andrea don't immunity themselves to the end - but if she makes it without Andrea in this scenario I think she's a winner.
The "Two Too Big Threats" - Andrea
I think if Andrea gets to the end she beats anybody. But everyone recognizes that, and no one wants to go to the end with her. And with no challenge prowess shown, it's hard seeing how she gets there. It'd take Aubry keeping her alive as a meat shield and winning a lucky immunity (which is tough with The Box as the FIC) to win at this point. - Steve
I don't think Steve is the threat that those in the game perceive him to be, likely just because of challenge prowess. I think he was riding on using Andrea as a meat shield and then getting credit for cutting her at the end. But everyone's on board with him here - I think it's too late for him to call it a "signature move" that shows him as a savvy player. Players want to cut him as a threat because they are afraid of his challenge prowess, but even so he'd have to go up against the right competition to win (people like him though, even though they think he hasn't done much)
The "Goats" - Tai
I think Tai has played a pretty active game that would otherwise be rewarded by a jury, but I feel like not great jury relationships will prevent him from winning in any combination. He might pick up a few votes though. - Natalie
Natalie has the opposite problem of Tai. No one hates her, but everyone just perceives her as a do-nothing follower. She wants to change that now, but honestly it's too late now to change that perception.
- Mon May 15, 2017 11:55:16 pm
#4993
I feel like Tai is the Dale of this season, Steve is the Nadiya... but who is the Val? Is LJ the Val? IDK...
To me LJ just feels like a winner, he belongs in that Varner/Penner group. But you could also make that argument for Steve... hmmm my gut says one of those two will definitely win.
I'd love to see a Tai win. just something about him being perpetually bullied and always targetted for the vote but never quite being the boot. Not sure he deserves it though, I see myself thinking... who? Even though he's been an integral part of the season and at one point was the person i was rooting for the most... IDK.
To me LJ just feels like a winner, he belongs in that Varner/Penner group. But you could also make that argument for Steve... hmmm my gut says one of those two will definitely win.
I'd love to see a Tai win. just something about him being perpetually bullied and always targetted for the vote but never quite being the boot. Not sure he deserves it though, I see myself thinking... who? Even though he's been an integral part of the season and at one point was the person i was rooting for the most... IDK.
- Wed May 17, 2017 12:43:41 am
#5568
I agree about LJ winning (which I'm going to detail in my F4 preview below), but I don't put him in Penner tier (I haven't seen Varner play so I can't comment on his game, but they could very well be similar). Penner has a deeper understanding of the mechanics of Survivor and social reasoning that I just haven't seen out of LJ
Tai to me is the Heidi from Allies. The season is kinda told through his perspective, but it's how and WHY he gets to the end and loses. He's definitely the biggest character remaining.Jeff Probst wrote: ↑Mon May 15, 2017 11:55:16 pmI feel like Tai is the Dale of this season, Steve is the Nadiya... but who is the Val? Is LJ the Val? IDK...
To me LJ just feels like a winner, he belongs in that Varner/Penner group. But you could also make that argument for Steve... hmmm my gut says one of those two will definitely win.
I'd love to see a Tai win. just something about him being perpetually bullied and always targetted for the vote but never quite being the boot. Not sure he deserves it though, I see myself thinking... who? Even though he's been an integral part of the season and at one point was the person i was rooting for the most... IDK.
I agree about LJ winning (which I'm going to detail in my F4 preview below), but I don't put him in Penner tier (I haven't seen Varner play so I can't comment on his game, but they could very well be similar). Penner has a deeper understanding of the mechanics of Survivor and social reasoning that I just haven't seen out of LJ
- Wed May 17, 2017 1:04:31 am
#5569
F4 Preview - Approaching Blackout / When Will the Bass Drop?
No need to do power rankings here, I'll just give my thoughts. As I said at F6 (and it was cemented at F5 barring a Steve immunity run), LJ is going to be the winner of Stranded in Socotra. Especially now at F4, I believe he can and will beat any of the other players remaining. Additionally, he isn't going to get voted out next round no matter what - that's going to be Aubry or Natalie because of manufactured threat levels, especially post F6. If somehow things drastically change between now and Thursday, and the F3 is Aubry/Natalie/Tai, it's going to come down to FTC performance and who can play to their strengths better (Aubry if she can emphasize likability and the fact that Natalie barely talked to anyone, and Natalie if she can emphasize being in the majority for every vote and that Aubry really struggled strategically down the stretch).
Before I get back to why LJ will win, I want to talk about the other F4 contestant that I haven't touched on so far - Tai. Tai, like I said before, is very similar to Heidi from last season to me. He's a huge personality that the season has been "told through" - he's been at the center (whether good or bad) of almost every power/social shift in the game. However, the fact that he has been pretty rude to some of the other contestants (particularly Nick) will render him no shot at the win - the jury is pretty close knit and have pretty much agreed that they cannot see themselves rewarding someone who had personally come at one of their own. His story is definitely complex, and I'm glad we are getting to see it through (we almost didn't when he was about to be eliminated in the early merge, but won a key immunity to buy himself time).
Aubry - oh Aubry. I'd actually really enjoy getting to know her post-season as a fellow intellectual. But after the Andrea vote, she's lost almost all of her remaining chance of winning. Yeah, beforehand she had voted throwaways a few times and could be seen as "gullible" more than "playing the middle" - but everyone liked her. Her move at F6 was 100% to vote out Natalie - take away even the possibility of others wanting to bring her to the end while preserving her Andrea meat shield, AND that she likely could have used the idol to do so which would have earned back those "precious" strategy points. Steve was even willing to do it. However, she got totally played - playing the idol on herself when she didn't need to, fumbling the vote by telling Tai about the idol and being the throwaway vote again is only going to cement her status in the jury's mind. She also still thinks she's winning if she makes it to the end which shows some unawareness. However, I think on a second play sometime she'd be a major candidate for improvement.
Back to LJ - the finale of this season is dead on the exact same fucking thing as the first Reddit series I ever played. Big threats are eliminated mid/late merge leaving two players in the FTC - one middle of the road who was ok but not horrendous socially, decent strategically, and pretty good at challenges but didn't really leave a huge footprint on the game - and another who was being dragged along to the end as a goat for never doing anything socially, and realized around ~F6 that they really needed to make some moves to try to impress the jury. LJ and Natalie are these two players respectively. And what you'll see as we go through the end game here, is that juries always vote on one premise - Who am I okay with admitting, "they beat me!" People on the jury now talk about Natalie's voting record and timely flip on Andrea, but as they are already slowly beginning to realize (and they will in the voting booth), that they would unable to be okay with saying someone who didn't socialize for at least half the game beat them. It's just a fact. She may pick up a couple of votes - but the jury will be able to sleep at night admitting that LJ outlasted them all.
Let's hope these last few days are exciting - and I can't wait to haze our new alumni <333
No need to do power rankings here, I'll just give my thoughts. As I said at F6 (and it was cemented at F5 barring a Steve immunity run), LJ is going to be the winner of Stranded in Socotra. Especially now at F4, I believe he can and will beat any of the other players remaining. Additionally, he isn't going to get voted out next round no matter what - that's going to be Aubry or Natalie because of manufactured threat levels, especially post F6. If somehow things drastically change between now and Thursday, and the F3 is Aubry/Natalie/Tai, it's going to come down to FTC performance and who can play to their strengths better (Aubry if she can emphasize likability and the fact that Natalie barely talked to anyone, and Natalie if she can emphasize being in the majority for every vote and that Aubry really struggled strategically down the stretch).
Before I get back to why LJ will win, I want to talk about the other F4 contestant that I haven't touched on so far - Tai. Tai, like I said before, is very similar to Heidi from last season to me. He's a huge personality that the season has been "told through" - he's been at the center (whether good or bad) of almost every power/social shift in the game. However, the fact that he has been pretty rude to some of the other contestants (particularly Nick) will render him no shot at the win - the jury is pretty close knit and have pretty much agreed that they cannot see themselves rewarding someone who had personally come at one of their own. His story is definitely complex, and I'm glad we are getting to see it through (we almost didn't when he was about to be eliminated in the early merge, but won a key immunity to buy himself time).
Aubry - oh Aubry. I'd actually really enjoy getting to know her post-season as a fellow intellectual. But after the Andrea vote, she's lost almost all of her remaining chance of winning. Yeah, beforehand she had voted throwaways a few times and could be seen as "gullible" more than "playing the middle" - but everyone liked her. Her move at F6 was 100% to vote out Natalie - take away even the possibility of others wanting to bring her to the end while preserving her Andrea meat shield, AND that she likely could have used the idol to do so which would have earned back those "precious" strategy points. Steve was even willing to do it. However, she got totally played - playing the idol on herself when she didn't need to, fumbling the vote by telling Tai about the idol and being the throwaway vote again is only going to cement her status in the jury's mind. She also still thinks she's winning if she makes it to the end which shows some unawareness. However, I think on a second play sometime she'd be a major candidate for improvement.
Back to LJ - the finale of this season is dead on the exact same fucking thing as the first Reddit series I ever played. Big threats are eliminated mid/late merge leaving two players in the FTC - one middle of the road who was ok but not horrendous socially, decent strategically, and pretty good at challenges but didn't really leave a huge footprint on the game - and another who was being dragged along to the end as a goat for never doing anything socially, and realized around ~F6 that they really needed to make some moves to try to impress the jury. LJ and Natalie are these two players respectively. And what you'll see as we go through the end game here, is that juries always vote on one premise - Who am I okay with admitting, "they beat me!" People on the jury now talk about Natalie's voting record and timely flip on Andrea, but as they are already slowly beginning to realize (and they will in the voting booth), that they would unable to be okay with saying someone who didn't socialize for at least half the game beat them. It's just a fact. She may pick up a couple of votes - but the jury will be able to sleep at night admitting that LJ outlasted them all.
Let's hope these last few days are exciting - and I can't wait to haze our new alumni <333
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